Scottish households face further increases in the cost of their weekly shop, with food inflation forecast to reach 6.4% next summer.
The Food and Drink Federation state that UK food and non-alcoholic drink prices are expected to rise by 3.9% in the year to December, before inflation peaks in July 2027.
Its December prediction is substantially lower than an earlier forecast of almost 10%, but the warning suggests pressure on household budgets will continue well into next year. The industry body blamed higher energy, transport and packaging costs, alongside conflict in the Middle East and extreme weather.
The warning comes as the Scottish Government consults on plans to cap the price of a basket of essential foods at large supermarkets.
John Swinney reaffirmed the proposal in his Programme for Government on 1 September. Ministers argue it would help families manage living costs, while farming and retail organisations warn that controls could push up other prices and fail to address the costs of producing and distributing food. The proposed cap is not yet in force.
For Scottish shoppers, access to affordable food also depends on where they live.
Research reported in May, covering more than 14,000 lower-income households in England and Scotland, highlighted how distance from shops and limited transport can make buying fresh food more difficult. In Glasgow’s Castlemilk, campaigners have spent years calling for a large supermarket to improve local access.
For families trying to keep spending under control, the question is how much of their weekly budget will be needed to put the same meals on the table.
The Food and Drink Federation chief executive Karen Betts said: “Food and drink manufacturers have kept food prices as low as possible during the energy shock since the closure of the Strait of Hormuz but they can’t do this indefinitely.
“The persistently higher costs of energy, logistics and packaging, compounded by this summer’s extreme heat mean that food prices will rise this year, and we believe that rise will be sustained into 2027.
“As the prime minister has recognised, households need some breathing space. Tackling the rising costs of food production will help with the cost of living, as well as giving businesses the confidence they need to invest in a resilient food system.”