The Scottish Government has estimated that Scotland’s prison population could reach nearly 9,500 by next summer - a rise of nearly 1000 inmates.
A quarterly projection released on Thursday showed the prison population, which is already over its 7,805 capacity, is likely to increase between this month and June 2027.
At the beginning of this month, the number of prisoners stood at 8,517, but projections suggest that figure could increase to between 8,350 and 9,450.
To ease the pressure, Holyrood has maximised capacity across the prison estate by 640 over the past three years, as well as building two new prisons.
Calling for further action, Justice Secretary Neil Gray said: “Like many countries, Scotland has seen a sustained rise in its prison population, placing significant pressure across the prison estate. Prison staff continue to show exceptional professionalism, resilience and commitment in very challenging circumstances, and I am grateful for the vital work they do every day.
“Further action is needed, which is why in June I set out proposals to achieve a sustainable prison population while maintaining public protection and reducing future offending.
“The planned reforms build on the recommendations of the independent Sentencing and Penal Policy Commission, which recognise that Scotland must rethink its approach to community sentencing and imprisonment.
“Alongside expansion of the prison estate, they will strike the right balance across custodial sentences, community sentencing and the need to robustly protect victims and the public. Responses to the consultation are being considered to inform next steps.”
Phil Fairlie, assistant secretary of the Prison Officers’ Association, described the projections as both “shocking” and “depressing”, adding that they come as no surprise to Scotland’s Prison Officers.
He said: “From the outset, the POA said that the Early Release Scheme would only provide temporary relief and that the spaces freed up would immediately be filled by newly convicted prisoners. That is exactly what has happened, and now the government is projecting that in a year’s time, Scotland will have a prison population with almost 1,000 more prisoners than we have at present. This is unsustainable and is heaping unbearable pressure on our members.
“I know the Scottish Government have consulted on future strategies for reducing prisoner populations, but we quite simply cannot wait for that to transpire sometime off in the distant future.
“I honestly think if these projections are accurate, the prison service must reach the point of having to say, “The doors are shut, we simply cannot take any more and continue to pretend that it is safe for anyone inside our prisons.”
“We need urgent action to address the lack of prison accommodation and the understaffing of the prison estate. We must also see vastly improved support for our members who are on the frontline of this crisis and working under intolerable pressure.
“In the longer term, if we are to reduce the number of people we send to prison, we have to address the root causes of offending – poverty, addiction, poor mental health, alienation, and hopelessness.”
“We need action now to tackle overcrowding, to help us keep people safe, support rehabilitation, reduce reoffending, and help build the safer Scotland we all want to see.”